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Approach prediction markets the way you would any other risky financial product: proper research, a structured process, and a review of your results to inform the next decision.

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Know the real-world event behind the market, the catalysts that impact it, and the risks in the market itself.

Category pages cover the major events in politics, economics, climate and sports.

Learn articles give practical guidance, and case studies test popular strategies and report the results.

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Seats in a parliamentary chamber

Analysis · Politics

World elections 2026 and 2027, priced by the people trading them.

Editorial standards apply to every piece.

Market context

Republican nominee 2028J.D. Vance 44%

U.S. invades Iran before 2027No 84%

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The Chironus market scanner listing Polymarket and Kalshi markets side by side

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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance · Kalshi · closes Jul 2028

Journal · 11 closed, 7 right

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?-$10.00

Will Yes win the 2026 Icelandic referendum on resuming European Union membership negotiations?+$24.47

Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?+$21.06

Study the results. Improve your decisions.

Your journal and history store every position, with the entry, the exit, the outcome and your notes.

Review how each strategy performed and build experience without the risk, so the next decision is better informed.

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Strategies
Climate and hazards+$15.094 resolved · 1 open
Macro prints+$14.122 resolved · 1 open
Elections and Congress+$39.664 resolved
AI releases-$10.001 resolved · 1 open
Journal
Aug 16
POLYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
YesLostAI releases

Entry 13% · Exit 0% · Closed Sep 1

Bought two weeks of runway. It landed on September 1.

-$10.00-100.0%
Aug 18
KLSHWill Yes win the 2026 Icelandic referendum on resuming European Union membership negotiations?
NoWonElections and Congress

Entry 38% · Exit 100% · Closed Aug 30

Nordic EU votes lean No late. Norway did it twice.

+$24.47+163.1%

11 closed, 7 right · +$58.87 realised

3 open · +$35.19 unrealised

The world’s biggest stories traded on prediction markets.

Sports & entertainment

Reality TV predictions 2026: Big Brother 28, Bachelorette spoilers, and Dancing with the Stars

Politics

Trump presidency tracker 2026: approval rating, impeachment markets, Cabinet exits, and pardons

Politics

Supreme Court predictions 2026-2027: who retires, who is named next, and how the big cases resolve

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