Prediction market analysis.
Market context, guides and case studies to help you understand prediction markets.
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Prediction market glossary.
- Binary ContractPricing & Probability
- A contract that resolves to $1 (Yes) or $0 (No).
- Event ContractPlatforms & Regulation
- A prediction market contract tied to a real-world outcome.
- Implied ProbabilityPricing & Probability
- The market's estimated likelihood, derived from the contract price.
- LiquidityPlatforms & Regulation
- How easily you can trade at the price you want.
- Order BookTrading Mechanics
- The list of pending buy and sell orders at various prices.
- Resolution SourceSettlement & Resolution
- The data source that determines a contract's outcome.
- SettlementSettlement & Resolution
- When a contract resolves and payouts are distributed.
- SpreadPricing & Probability
- The difference between the best buy and sell price.
Prediction market FAQ.
What is a prediction market?
A market where contracts pay out on a real-world outcome: $1 if it happens, $0 if it does not. The price of a contract, somewhere between 0 and 100 cents, is the market's live estimate of how likely that outcome is.
How do I read a price like 54%?
As the probability the market currently gives the outcome. Traders are paying 54 cents for a contract that pays $1 if it happens. Someone who believes the true chance is higher buys Yes; someone who believes it is lower buys No.
Which platforms do the guides cover?
Polymarket and Kalshi. The mechanics are the same on both; the guides point out where the two differ, from settlement rules and fees to which events each one lists. The scanner shows the two prices side by side.
Do I need an account to read the guides or use the scanner?
No. The guides, the glossary and the market scanner are open to everyone. A free account adds followed events, a weekly digest and a practice-trading desk.
How does practice trading work?
The practice desk uses live market prices and simulated funds, so a strategy can be tested against real markets without money at stake. Nothing is bought or sold on any platform.
What is the difference between a guide and an event page?
A guide explains how something works and stays useful for months: how contracts settle, how to read an order book, how to hedge a business risk. An event page follows one live topic and its markets as they move. Guides link to the event pages where the mechanics show up in practice.