Tornado predictions 2026: season timing, where tornadoes strike, and peak months by state

A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground. The United States records more tornadoes than any other nation, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracking official reports through its Storm Prediction Center. NOAA publishes a preliminary tally within days of an event, followed by a fully reviewed official record months later after duplicate reports are filtered and ground surveys are completed.

When is tornado season?

Tornado season in the United States peaks in spring. April, May, and June account for slightly over half of all tornadoes annually, with May being the single busiest month, averaging nearly 270 tornadoes based on NOAA Storm Prediction Center data from 1991 to 2020.

Unlike the Atlantic hurricane season (which is defined formally as June 1 through November 30), tornado season has no official start or end date. The term simply describes the months when reports cluster, though tornadoes can and do occur in every month of the year.

A secondary, smaller severe weather window opens in late fall from roughly November through mid-December, primarily affecting the Southeastern United States.

Where do tornadoes occur?

Tornadoes occur most frequently across the central and southeastern United States, concentrated heavily within two informal corridors known as Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley. Neither region has official administrative boundaries, and published geographical maps often vary.

Tornado Alley conventionally encompasses northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, sometimes extending into Iowa, Missouri, and the Dakotas. Dixie Alley covers Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee. A key distinction of Dixie Alley is its high frequency of nighttime storms. Nocturnal tornadoes are roughly two and a half times as deadly as daytime tornadoes (Ashley, Krmenec, and Schwantes, Weather and Forecasting, 2008).

While tornadoes occur on every continent except Antarctica (with regular activity in Canada, Argentina, Bangladesh, and parts of Europe), the United States leads global activity by a wide margin at approximately 1,200 per year according to the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. Because international tracking systems vary in methodology, prediction contracts settle strictly on the U.S. national figure published by NOAA.