Who actually makes money on prediction markets

The harsh reality is that most people who trade prediction markets to make money don’t, and the data on who does is now public. Researchers and reporters have analyzed millions of historical trades across both decentralized platforms and regulated exchanges to track who profits. The numbers show that profits, overwhelmingly, do not spread across the retail audience that trades these contracts.

Instead, capital concentrates in a tiny fraction of accounts, while the broader public absorbs the losses. A study of Polymarket’s public trading records, reported by Yale in June 2026, concluded that “the remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it.”¹

What percent of prediction market traders make money?

Between 16% and 32% of accounts turn a profit, depending on the study.²³⁴ An April 2026 analysis by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov of roughly 2.5 million Polymarket wallets found that 84.1% were not profitable.⁵ Only about 2% of wallets had ever made more than $1,000, and 840 addresses, or 0.033%, had made more than $100,000.⁶

A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million Polymarket accounts active since November 2022 showed a similar skew.⁷ More than 70% of accounts had lost money, and 0.1% collected 67% of all profits.⁸ The typical account in that dataset was down between $1 and $100, while the bottom 10% lost an average of $4,000 each.⁹

These figures reflect wallet addresses and trading accounts rather than individuals, and one person can hold more than one account.

Who are the prediction market traders that profit?

Simply put, the prediction market traders that actually make money can be boiled down to a small group of fast, skilled participants and market makers, alongside a larger cohort of accounts that simply got lucky.¹⁰

While both Kalshi and Polymarket operate central order books, Polymarket's public transaction log allows researchers to track account-level performance directly.¹¹ A study by Theis Ingerslev Jensen of the Yale School of Management, with Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung of London Business School, analyzed 1.72 million accounts across two years of trading:¹²

• Only 3% of accounts showed skill that chance could not explain.¹³
• Skilled traders and market makers, fewer than 3.5% of accounts together, captured over 30% of total gains.¹⁴
• About 29% of accounts made money without any measurable skill and took the remaining 69% of gains.¹⁵
• The skilled traders reacted faster to news such as Federal Reserve announcements and company earnings, and their trades moved prices toward the final result.¹⁶
• Skill tended to last: 44% of accounts rated skilled in one half of their markets were rated skilled in the other half too.¹⁷

Why do most people lose money trading prediction markets?

Two patterns account for much of the loss: traders overpay for long shots, and they pay extra to trade immediately instead of setting their own price.¹⁸

Retail participants often gravitate toward cheap Yes contracts, treating them like high-upside lottery tickets. A study of more than 300,000 Kalshi contracts by Constantin Bürgi, Wanying Deng, and Karl Whelan demonstrated why this fails: “low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even after fees,” while high-price contracts “win more often and yield small positive returns.”¹⁹

How a trader enters a trade creates a second structural hurdle. The same study found that makers, who post the prices and wait for someone to match them, “earn higher returns than Takers,” who simply accept the prices available on the screen.²⁰ On top of this cost, traders often misjudge fair probability. A Wall Street Journal analysis of more than 35,000 completed Kalshi mention markets found that Yes contracts priced at a 50% chance paid out only about 40% of the time.²¹

What gives a trader a fighting chance?

Nothing removes the risk, but the evidence shows that the traders who profit consistently are better informed and faster to react.²²

A trader can focus on specific habits and preparation to improve their baseline:

• Compare prices before trading: Kalshi and Polymarket list many of the same events, sometimes under different contract rules. The Chironus scanner shows both side by side.
• Follow the news that moves a market: The skilled traders in the Yale study reacted faster to news.²³ Chironus sends alerts when a market in an event they follow moves.
• Practice before risking money: Paper trading on Chironus fills at live prices with simulated money, so a trader can test reasoning first.
• Get insight from people who know the field: Chironus experts are credentialed specialists who publish picks and pieces which are valuable to prediction market participants.