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Chironus.

Responsible trading.

Prediction markets involve real money and real risk. Here is how to approach them responsibly.

Trading involves real financial risk.

Prediction market trading can result in the loss of some or all of the money you deposit. Contracts that expire out of the money are worth zero.

Past performance of any market, strategy, or contract does not guarantee future results. Nothing on Chironus constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to trade.

Principles of responsible trading.

  • Set a budget before you deposit and treat it as money you can afford to lose entirely. Once it is gone, stop; do not deposit more to chase losses.
  • Size your positions. Even correct predictions lose sometimes, so a common guideline is to risk no more than 1 to 5% of your trading capital on any single position.
  • Set time limits. Prediction markets run around the clock with no natural stopping point; if you find yourself checking prices compulsively, that is a signal to step back.
  • Never trade under the influence of alcohol, drugs, fatigue, or strong emotion. That applies equally to the euphoria of a winning streak and the frustration after losses.
  • Keep records of every deposit, withdrawal, and trade outcome. Knowing your actual profit and loss over time is the best defense against self-deception.
  • Accept that you will lose. Losses are a normal part of participation; if you cannot accept them without distress or the urge to win it back immediately, prediction markets may not be appropriate for you.

Warning signs that trading has become a problem.

Problem gambling and compulsive trading share the same behavioral patterns. Watch for:

  • Trading with money you cannot afford to lose
  • Chasing losses with new deposits
  • Lying to family or friends about your trading
  • Feeling anxious or restless when you are not trading
  • Trying to cut back and failing
  • Trading interfering with work, relationships, or daily responsibilities

If any of these apply to you, consider taking a break and seeking support through the resources below.

Support resources.

If you or someone you know is experiencing problems related to prediction market trading, gambling, or compulsive financial behavior, help is available. All resources listed below are free and confidential.

Our commitment to responsible trading.

  • Never use language that implies guaranteed profits, risk-free trading, or easy money
  • Never suppress information about platform risks
  • Always include risk warnings on pages that link to prediction market platforms
  • Keep the helplines and support resources current

Frequently asked questions.

Is prediction market trading the same as gambling?

The legal classification varies by jurisdiction. CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi operate as designated contract markets under federal oversight. Some states classify prediction market contracts as gambling. Regardless of legal classification, prediction market trading carries the same behavioral risks as gambling: financial loss, emotional decision-making, and the potential for compulsive behavior. We encourage the same responsible practices whether you call it trading or betting.

How much should I deposit on a prediction market?

Only money you can afford to lose entirely. A common guideline from professional trading and poker is to never risk more than 1-5% of your total trading capital on a single position. If losing your entire deposit would cause financial stress, reduce the amount or do not deposit at all.

What are the warning signs that my trading is becoming a problem?

Key warning signs include: trading with money you cannot afford to lose; chasing losses by depositing more; lying to others about your trading; feeling anxious or restless when not trading; being unable to cut back despite trying; and trading interfering with work, relationships, or daily life. These patterns are recognized by the National Council on Problem Gambling regardless of whether the activity is called trading or gambling. If you recognize these signs, support is available through the helplines and organizations listed under Support resources.

Can I set deposit limits on prediction market platforms?

Some platforms offer deposit limits and self-exclusion tools. Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts offer deposit limits and self-exclusion. Polymarket, as a decentralized platform, does not offer built-in responsible trading tools. If a platform does not offer deposit limits, you can set your own limits through your bank or payment provider, or use gambling-blocking software like Gamban or BetBlocker.

Where can I get help if I have a problem?

In the US, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), the National Problem Gambling Helpline, available 24/7. In the UK, call 0808 8020 133 (GamCare, 24/7). In Australia, call 1800 858 858 (Gambling Help Online, 24/7). In Canada, call 1-866-531-2600 (ConnexOntario). For international support, visit gamblingtherapy.org for free online counselling in multiple languages. All services are free and confidential.