Super Bowl LXI and 2026 NFL season predictions: preseason front-runners, MVP voting, and playoff tiebreakers

The National Football League runs a seventeen-game regular season across thirty-two teams, split equally between the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). Fourteen teams reach the playoffs, seven per conference, with only the top seed in each conference earning a first-round bye.

Beyond the weekly schedule, several distinct mechanisms shape how an NFL season unfolds and how its achievements are measured. Assessing the road to February involves examining the historical accuracy of preseason expectations, the voting process behind individual regular-season awards, and the specific tiebreaker procedures that determine division titles and wildcard seeding.

How often does the preseason favorite win the Super Bowl?

The team rated most likely to win the Super Bowl before the regular season began has won the championship once in the last five seasons. Official preseason predictions published by NFL.com listed Kansas City in 2021, Buffalo in 2022, Kansas City in 2023 and 2024, and Baltimore level with Buffalo in 2025. Only the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs went on to win the title that same season.

Looking at preseason expectations offers a partial view because analysts typically highlight a subset of top contenders rather than all thirty-two franchises. For example, Seattle won Super Bowl LX after entering the 2025 campaign outside consensus top-tier lists.

A broader measure of championship outcomes is the playoff seed each winner carried. Across the ten Super Bowls from LI through LX, four champions finished as their conference's number one seed. Since the playoff field expanded to fourteen teams in 2020 and restricted the first-round bye to top seeds alone, the number one seed has won twice in six years, while Tampa Bay won Super Bowl LV as a fifth seed and Kansas City won Super Bowl LVIII as a third seed.

Who votes for NFL MVP, and how is the award decided?

A nationwide panel of fifty media members who regularly cover the league votes for the NFL Most Valuable Player award, which is administered by the Associated Press (AP) rather than the league itself. Voters submit their ballots before the postseason begins, meaning performances during the January and February playoffs cannot influence the outcome.

The AP transitioned to a ranked ballot system in 2022. Each voter selects a top five, with points awarded on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale, allowing a player with fewer first-place votes to win on total points. The 2025 MVP race demonstrated this mechanic when Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) secured the award with 366 total points and 24 first-place votes, edging out Drake Maye's (New England Patriots) 361 points and 23 first-place votes.

The award winner is announced during the annual NFL Honors ceremony held in the days leading up to the Super Bowl. Because ballots are finalized before wild-card weekend, postseason quarterback play has no bearing on regular-season MVP voting totals.

What are the NFL tiebreakers for division titles and playoff seeding?

The NFL resolves tied regular-season records using a published, ordered procedure that prioritizes head-to-head competition. When two clubs tie for a division title, the sequence evaluates head-to-head records first, followed by record within the division, record in common games, and record within the conference. Strength of schedule is not applied until the fifth step, while point differential comes into play at the ninth step.

Ties for wild-card spots follow a modified procedure because the tied clubs often reside in different divisions. Head-to-head results apply only if the clubs played each other during the regular season, the divisional-record step is omitted, and common-game evaluations require a minimum of four played games. When three or more clubs are tied, the procedure first breaks ties within individual divisions to identify each division's top representative before applying wild-card tiebreakers across conferences.

A fundamental rule governs the process: only one club advances at any single tiebreaker step. Once a team breaks a tie to claim a playoff spot or seed, all remaining tied teams return to the very first step of the procedure to determine the next position. This step-by-step reset explains why playoff seeding projections can shift dramatically following week-end game results.

Recent champions and the season calendar.

• 2020: The NFL expanded its playoff field to fourteen teams (seven per conference), granting a first-round bye exclusively to the number one seed in each conference.
• Feb 2021: Tampa Bay won Super Bowl LV by defeating Kansas City 31-9 as the NFC's fifth seed.
• 2021: NFL team owners approved a seventeen-game regular-season schedule and three preseason games, starting with the 2021 campaign.
• 2022: The Associated Press instituted a five-player ranked MVP ballot weighted at ten, five, three, two, and one points.
• Feb 2023: Kansas City won Super Bowl LVII by defeating Philadelphia 38-35 as the AFC's top seed.
• Feb 2024: Kansas City won Super Bowl LVIII by defeating San Francisco 25-22 in overtime as the AFC's third seed.
• Feb 2025: Philadelphia won Super Bowl LIX by defeating Kansas City 40-22 as the NFC's second seed.
• May 2025: NFL owners rejected a proposal to ban pushing or pulling a ball carrier, falling two votes short of the required twenty-four approval votes.
• Feb 2026: Seattle won Super Bowl LX by defeating New England 29-13 as the NFC's top seed.
• Sep 2026: The NFL's 107th regular season opened on September 9 with New England visiting Seattle.
• Nov 2026: The NFL player trade deadline is set for 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on November 10.
• Jan 2027: The regular season concludes with Week 18 games on January 9 and January 10.
• Feb 2027: Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for February 14 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.