The Trump presidency ·
Trump presidency tracker 2026: approval ratings, leaving office early, and impeachment
Updated · 7 min read
Donald Trump's second four-year term began on January 20, 2025, and Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment establishes that the term concludes at noon on January 20, 2029. Under the U.S. Constitution, three specific procedures can end a presidential term prior to that date: resignation, the disability mechanism established in Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, and impeachment by the House of Representatives followed by conviction in the Senate.
Trump's second term has been defined by rapid executive actions, major legislative shifts like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and sweeping changes to federal agencies. His administration has prioritized aggressive immigration enforcement, major tariff policy overhauls, and significant foreign policy actions, including military operations involving Iran and new diplomatic frameworks in the Middle East.
How is presidential approval measured, and what moves it?
Presidential approval is measured by polling a representative random sample of adults on a single question: whether they approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job. Polling organizations report an approval percentage, a disapproval percentage, and an undecided share for a specific field period. Statistical aggregators compile results from multiple polling firms to calculate a daily running average.
Public approval ratings shift in response to major national events, legislative battles, and economic indicators. Gallup's published second-term trend table recorded the opening reading of Trump's second term at 47 percent approval against 48 percent disapproval in late January 2025. Later polling in November 2025 recorded 36 percent approval against 60 percent disapproval following an extended federal government shutdown and off-year elections.
Aggregated polling tracking provides a continuous benchmark of public sentiment across the four-year term, capturing shifts in public support over time.
How can a president leave office early, and who takes over?
A president can leave office early through four constitutional pathways: death, resignation, removal following impeachment and conviction, or the disability provisions of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment. Section 1 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment dictates that upon the president's removal, death, or resignation, the vice president becomes president.
Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment addresses executive disability. If the vice president and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments declare in writing to Congress that the president is unable to discharge the duties of the office, the vice president assumes the powers as acting president. If the president transmits a written declaration to the contrary, Congress must resolve the issue; keeping the president stripped of power requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.
If both the presidency and vice presidency become vacant simultaneously, the Presidential Succession Act (3 U.S.C. 19) establishes the line of succession. Order passes first to the Speaker of the House, then to the President pro tempore of the Senate, and subsequently to Cabinet secretaries in the order of their department's creation, beginning with the Secretary of State.
How does impeachment work, and what would removal require?
Impeachment is a formal constitutional charge, not an automatic removal from office. Article I of the Constitution grants the House of Representatives the sole power of impeachment, which requires a simple majority vote on one or more articles of impeachment. The Senate holds the sole power to try all impeachments, where conviction and removal require a two-thirds concurrence of members present.
No U.S. president has been convicted by the Senate. According to the House Historian's list of individuals impeached, the House has impeached three presidents across four separate occasions: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021. In all four instances, the Senate voted to acquit.
Upon conviction, the Senate may also vote by a simple majority to disqualify the individual from holding future federal office.
Impeachment votes, approval readings and senior staff changes, by date.
- Feb 1868: The House impeached Andrew Johnson; the Senate subsequently acquitted him following a trial ending in May.
- Dec 1998: The House adopted two articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton.
- Feb 1999: The Senate acquitted Clinton on both articles of impeachment.
- Dec 2019: The House impeached Donald Trump on articles of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
- Feb 2020: The Senate voted to acquit Trump on both articles.
- Jan 2021: The House impeached Trump a second time on a single article of incitement of insurrection.
- Feb 2021: The Senate acquitted Trump in his second impeachment trial.
- Jan 2025: Donald Trump took the oath of office for his second term on January 20.
- Jul 2025: Gallup recorded a mid-year approval rating reading of 37 percent.
- Nov 2025: Gallup recorded an approval reading of 36 percent against 60 percent disapproval.
- Mar 2026: The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security by a 54 to 45 vote following the departure of Kristi Noem.
- Apr 2026: Todd Blanche began serving as acting Attorney General.
- Aug 2026: The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche by a 50 to 49 vote on August 8, and he was officially sworn in as the 88th Attorney General on August 10.
- Aug 2026: Karoline Leavitt concluded her service as White House press secretary on August 27.
- Sep 2026: The Senate confirmed Keith Sonderling as Secretary of Labor by a 47 to 41 vote on September 30.
- Oct 2026: Trump named Katie Zacharia as the next White House press secretary on October 9, succeeding Karoline Leavitt.
- Jan 2029: The second presidential term concludes at noon on January 20 under the Twentieth Amendment.
Trump presidency markets.
Market snapshot . Refreshes when you return to this tab, at most once every 30 seconds.
141 events · 501 markets
- How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? · 0: Yes 88% · $135.9K volume
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Yes 9% · $137.5K volume
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · No other person: Yes 47% · $28.5K volume
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have? · 2: Yes 56% · $21.4K volume
- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? · Yes 26% · $21.4K volume
- Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? · Yes 5% · $11.6K volume
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year? · Yes 25% · $7K volume
- Who will be the next Secretary of the Army? · Sean Parnell: Yes 24% · $8.8K volume
- Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? · Yes 44% · $43.6K volume
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? · Yes 4% · $1.6M volume
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes 4% · $772.6K volume
- Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? · Before Jan 20, 2029: Yes 48% · $623.9K volume
- Who will Trump pardon in 2026? · Derek Chauvin: Yes 5% · $570.1K volume
- Who will Trump pardon before 2027? · Sam Bankman-Fried: Yes 4% · $573.1K volume
- Who will Trump pardon? · Barron Trump: Yes 57% · $419.1K volume
- How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? · At least 1 trillion: Yes 5% · $282.8K volume
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026? · 1-100: Yes 75% · $261.2K volume
- Which agencies will Trump eliminate? · USAID: Yes 17% · $199K volume
- Trump declares election interference national emergency? · Yes 24% · $413.8K volume
- Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026? · Yes 5% · $199.1K volume
- Will Trump declare an election emergency? · Yes 4% · $368.7K volume
- Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? · Yes 16% · $165.2K volume
- Deportations in 2026? · Above 500,000: Yes 18% · $183.9K volume
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026? · 700-800k: Yes 2% · $135.5K volume
- Will Trump expand the H1-B program? · Yes 28% · $124K volume
- How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? · At least 250 billion: Yes 6% · $90.9K volume
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody? · Yes 7% · $77.5K volume
- How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? · Below 300: Yes 9% · $47.4K volume
- Who will receive payment from Trump’s Anti-Weaponization Fund in 2026? · Enrique Tarrio: Yes 3% · $54.6K volume
- Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? · Yes 35% · $90.4K volume
- Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits? · Yes 8% · $54.5K volume
- Will Trump make IVF free? · Yes 12% · $38K volume
- How many bills with Trump veto in 2026? · At least 1: Yes 40% · $40.3K volume
- Will Trump pardon any members of his family? · Yes 85% · $24.6K volume
- What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? · United Nations: Yes 15% · $14.6K volume
- Will Trump nationalize elections? · Yes 6% · $24.1K volume
- FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts) · Yes 20% · $6.9K volume
- Who will join Trump's sovereign wealth fund before 2027? · Chamath Palihapitiya: Yes 4% · $19.6K volume
- How many government employees will Trump cut? · More than 150,000: Yes 11% · $15.1K volume
- How many people will Trump pardon in 2026? · Resolved · No won · $5.8K volume
- Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? · Yes 6% · $13.5K volume
- Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? · Yes 4% · $10.6K volume
- Will Trump invoke the DC Home Rule Act? · Yes 13% · $10.7K volume
- Will Trump pull CBP from a sanctuary city airport? · Quote unavailable · $9.1K volume
- Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026? · Yes 12% · $103.8K volume
- Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? · Yes 37% · $5.7K volume
- Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency? · Yes 29% · $5K volume
- Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models? · Yes 14% · $6.3K volume
- Will Trump issue a veto in 2026? · Yes 76% · $5.9K volume
- Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? · Yes 8% · $13.3K volume
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes 2% · $36M volume
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes 3% · $11M volume
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? · Before January 20, 2029: Yes 17% · $5.2M volume
- Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? · Before January 21, 2029: Yes 23% · $3.5M volume
- What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? · Greenland: Yes 2% · $1.9M volume
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for? · $900 billion to $1199 billion: Yes 1% · $1.8M volume
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes 2% · $1.5M volume
- Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? · Yes 21% · $614.7K volume
- Will Venezuela become 51st state? · Yes 3% · $400.1K volume
- US takes Panama Canal before 2027? · Yes 3% · $183.8K volume
- Will US annex any territory in 2026? · Yes 8% · $158.6K volume
- Will the US take control of any part of Canada? · Yes 9% · $150K volume
- Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? · Yes 9% · $88K volume
- US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? · Yes 4% · $81.4K volume
- Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026? · Yes 5% · $40.7K volume
- Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · Yes 8% · $4.4K volume
- Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? · Yes 3% · $1.3M volume
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? · No meeting by December 31: Yes 17% · $2.2M volume
- Who will Trump meet with in 2026? · Vladimir Putin: Yes 83% · $1.1M volume
- Will the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House? · Yes 8% · $671.4K volume
- 2026: Trump's dream year? · Yes 2% · $659.5K volume
- What countries will Trump visit in 2026? · Israel: Yes 7% · $522K volume
- Will Donald Trump visit Iran? · Yes 3% · $443.1K volume
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026? · Taiwan: Yes 3% · $362.8K volume
- 2026: Trump's bad year? · Yes 5% · $284.5K volume
- Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026? · Nicolás Maduro: Yes 4% · $253.7K volume
- Who will visit the White House in 2026? · John Ternus: Yes 20% · $84.2K volume
- Will Bill Maher visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? · Resolved · Yes won · $5.5K volume
- Will Trump visit North Korea by...? · Yes 7% · $136.5K volume
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · Yes 7% · $110.4K volume
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? · Yes 9% · $135.1K volume
- Which states will Trump visit in 2026? · Minnesota: Yes 11% · $31.3K volume
- When will Trump's ballroom be completed? · Before 2028: Yes 18% · $66.2K volume
- Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026? · James Fishback: Yes 10% · $62.8K volume
- Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? · Yes 15% · $63.2K volume
- Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? · Yes 11% · $59.7K volume
- Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026? · Tim Pool: Yes 50% · $58.7K volume
- Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026? · Oregon: Yes 15% · $49.9K volume
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? · Yes 7% · $63.4K volume
- Where will Trump and Putin next meet? · Hungary: Yes 2% · $41.8K volume
- Trump on $250 bill this year? · Yes 5% · $39.2K volume
- Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? · Dana White: Yes 18% · $22.7K volume
- Will Trump go on SNL during his second term? · Yes 17% · $28.3K volume
- Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? · Yes 13% · $23.9K volume
- Will Trump visit Greenland by...? · Yes 4% · $96K volume
- Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader? · Yes 35% · $19.9K volume
- Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · Yes 13% · $19.8K volume
- Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? · Yes 13% · $18.6K volume
- Will the New York Pro Basketball team visit the White House? · Yes 39% · $17.5K volume
- Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026? · Yes 71% · $14.7K volume
- Will Trump visit Greenland? · Yes 8% · $3.5K volume
- Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026? · Yes 5% · $8.6K volume
- Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026? · Below 37.3: Yes 6% · $63.3K volume
- What will Trump say this week? (November 2 - November 8) · Brazil: Quote unavailable · $4.9K volume
- What will Trump say this week? · Bibi / Netanyahu: Quote unavailable · $25.4K volume
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 334? · Yes 28% · $11.5K volume
- What will Trump say in November? · Dividend / Stimulus: Quote unavailable · $38K volume
- What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit? · Democrat: Yes 54% · $10.3K volume
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 335? · Yes 14% · $2.9K volume
- What nicknames will Trump say before 2027? · Biden Crime Family: Yes 14% · $10.7K volume
- What will Katie Zacharia say in the next press briefing? · China / Chinese: Yes 42% · $18.4K volume
Frequently asked questions.
Could the United States acquire Greenland, and what would it take?
Acquiring territory requires a formal international treaty. Article II of the Constitution specifies that the president can conclude treaties provided two-thirds of the Senate concurs, along with formal agreement from the selling nation (in Greenland's case, the Kingdom of Denmark). Historical U.S. territorial purchases include Alaska in 1867 for $7.2 million and the Danish West Indies (U.S. Virgin Islands) in 1917 for $25 million.
How are Cabinet secretaries replaced, and how often do they leave?
Cabinet secretaries are nominated by the president and require majority confirmation by the Senate. Between a secretary's departure and a successor's confirmation, executive departments are managed by acting officers under federal vacancy laws.
What can a presidential pardon do, and what can't it?
Article II grants the president the power to issue reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment. This power applies exclusively to federal crimes and does not extend to state-level prosecutions or civil matters.
How does a territory become a state?
Under Article IV of the Constitution, Congress holds the sole authority to admit new states to the Union. New states cannot be formed within the jurisdiction of an existing state without the consent of the involved state legislatures and Congress. Admission typically requires an enabling act of Congress, a state constitution drafted by the territory, and a final congressional resolution.
Can a U.S. president serve a third term?
No. The Twenty-Second Amendment explicitly states that no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice. Additionally, anyone who has held or acted as president for more than two years of another person's term may only be elected once.
What is an executive order, and what are its limits?
An executive order is a directive issued by the president to manage operations within the federal executive branch, published in the Federal Register. Executive orders hold the force of law for federal agencies but cannot override existing federal statutes or violate constitutional constraints.
More in Politics

Politics
2026 midterm elections: control of Congress, the generic ballot, and when results become official
House and Senate control, individual battleground races, and seat count prediction market prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics
Supreme Court predictions 2026-2027: how justices are confirmed, when they retire, and when rulings are released
Track the ladder for the next Supreme Court justice, the retirement-watch contracts on Samuel Alito, and the pending cert petitions on sports event contracts, tariffs, and gun rights, priced live on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics
World election predictions 2026-2027: the calendar, choosing a prime minister, and runoff settlement
Live prices for Brazil, France, and every other national election and leadership race outside the US and Israel, tracked through 2027.